A few points made my Peter Linneman and Albert Saiz of The Wharton School just leap off the page....
- ...the best way to predict a county's population growth is to look at how much it grew in the past decade. (p.5)
- The age distribution of the population in another predictor of future growth, that is, very young and very old populations tend to grow more slowly. (p. 7)
- A high degree of taxation may make a county less attractive to taxpayers and entrepreneurs. (p.8)
- If we run our analysis with politics as the only variable, we find that Republican dominated counties (based upon presidential and senatorial data from the early 1980's) do tend to grow faster. (p.8)
- Briefly put, Americans are rapidly leaving cold, damp and snowy areas for sunnier and drier climates. (p. 9)
- Since declining cities such as New Orleans, Detroit and Buffalo have massive and valuable housing stocks, reduced housing demand translated into lower housing prices, and made these cities a bit less unattractive. (p. 9)
Here's that list (p.12). Herkimer, Cayuga, Chatauqua, Erie, Schoharie, Livingston, Chemung, Niagara, Wayne, Onondaga, Genesee and Broome. (New York State Counties Red v. Blue via CNN) These "red" counties have smaller populations, are mostly rural and lack significant population centers.
If anyone has the numbers on people leaving New York State...let me know.